Swarming is probable for overwintered hives,
and not a risk for new hives,
provided sufficient space is provided.
These notes are primarily intended for 2nd and 3rd year beekeepers.
Those who don't plan for swarming, plan to swarm.
Some recommended reading:
Short: Quick and dirty
Article: "Five Steps to Stop bees from Swarming"
http://londonhoneyshop.blogspot.ca/2009/06/5-steps-to-stop-bees-swarming.html
Medium: Pretty well everything you need to know:
Book: "Swarm Essentials" By Stephen Repaskey and Lawrence Connor
http://www.amazon.com/Swarm-Essentials-Ecology-Management-Sustainability/dp/1878075322
Long: Extensive theory. Very interesting, for the very interested:
Book: "Honeybee Democracy" by Tom Seeley
http://www.amazon.com/Honeybee-Democracy-Thomas-D-Seeley/dp/0691147213/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1401819543&sr=1-1&keywords=honeybee+democracy
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